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August 28, 2007 11:30 AM PDT

Flat-panels to kill off rear-projection TV sales by 2011

Posted by John P. Falcone
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Rear-projection TV

Rear-projection TV: heading toward extinction.

(Credit: CNET)

Will rear-projection TV sales plunge to near zero within the next 48 months? That's what a new study from IDC Group claims. With ever larger plasma and (especially) LCD flat-panel HDTVs becoming ever more affordable, IDC sees sales of RPTV sets--those utilizing DLP and LCoS microdisplays--dropping to under 30,000 units by 2011. That's a dramatic drop from the peak of 3.51 million sold in 2004 (according to the CEA).

None of this is shocking news, of course--the trend toward flat panels has been increasingly irreversible as large plasmas and LCD screens continue to break key price-point barriers. For the consumer, however, it's the best news of all: LCD and plasma prices continue to drop, and even larger rear-pro TVs will approach fire-sale prices as they have their last hurrah.

SOURCE: CNBC video interview--Becky Quick discusses the IDC report with Ruben Roy, Pacific Crest Securities semiconductor analyst, and Eric Haruki, IDC research director.

John P. Falcone covers home theater and network entertainment products. He's been writing for CNET since 2002.
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Add a Comment (Log in or register) 13 comments
Picture quality is the key
by mkeblx August 28, 2007 12:00 PM PDT
But if you have the space their picture quality can be excellent, especially on a value standpoint. My 5 year old rear projection HDTV still looks good compared with todays plasma and LCD models.
Reply to this comment
Ummmm......
by YoYoMA August 29, 2007 11:34 AM PDT
I highly doubt that.
A year ago I wouldnt have taken this seriously
by adl456 August 28, 2007 2:39 PM PDT
I am afraid they might be right. Last January I bought my 56" JVC rear projection for $1900.00 only because the plasma were too expensive and the LCD's weren't big enough. Picture quality is great but for about the same price now and probably even lower during the holidays I could probably snag a 50" plasma. Goodbye rear projection, been nice knowing ya!
Reply to this comment
DPL TV...an early death?
by encore12 September 1, 2007 4:09 AM PDT
MY 61 inch Samsung with a LED engine will last the life of the TV (approximately 20,000 hours) without having to change the light... which is necessary (every 6000 hours or so) with those TVs that do not have an LED.

Who knows...will the flat screen TVs come up with a long lasting arc light in the not to distant future? If not, then speaking of the death of the RP TV is maybe just a little premature.
Reply to this comment
Short sighted outlook
by PFreak September 4, 2007 8:04 AM PDT
The first thing I would say to this is that for now, the rear projection sets have a
much better image quality. 2 years after buying a 50" DLP it still has a better
picture than any plasma less than twice its price. As long as they keep the bulbs
lasting longer and continue to make them thinner they will be around. If they
could get the latest sets 4" smaller, they'd be the same as a "flat panel" which is,
in reality, about 4" deep itself.
Reply to this comment
DLP better than plasma?? Heck no...
by cwnyc September 23, 2007 12:15 AM PDT
I have an older Samsung DLP 50" that I bought for about $2500 a few years ago. Then I saw some great reviews for the first generation Vizio 50" plasma sets (the newer generation Vizio 50" got rather poor specs and reveiws) and it was under $2K, so I got one... THERE IS NO COMPARISION with a rare projection DLP with a plasma! Even when calibrated with a simple after market DVD such as Avia, even a cheapola brand like Vizio, the plasma beat the DLP in EVERY way... The plasma just look like CRT direct view sets. I have since sold the DLP set for $200 (I had asked for higher but NO BODY wanted it). And this is coming from someone who had BOTH types of display, calibrated, and compared SIDE to SIDE with Toshiba's HD DVD player... And the plasma was much cheaper than the DLP!!! The other reviewer said DLP is better? Are you kidding? Did you do a side to side comparison..?
Reply to this comment
DLP vs. LCD - there is not even a choice here....
by toolazyforalogin September 26, 2007 5:36 PM PDT
A new Samsung DLP Rear Projection TV that has been properly calibrated (from Eliab of course) will surpass any LCD tv on the market atm. Remember that w/ a DLP the bulb will blow eventually and after it is replaced the PQ will be the same as day 1. However w/ LCD the PQ slowly degrades over time and therefore is not worth buying due to its depreciation. I don't consider plasmas an option due to their weight and/or the amount of current required to run one of them.

There are plenty of sites around to read about the information w/ avs probably being the best.

Good luck.
Reply to this comment
Projection Still Best Value For About 2 Years
by stanny1 September 26, 2007 5:43 PM PDT
Yes, WHEN LCD achieves the same sizes for nearly the same price as projection, we will see flat panel direct-view sets own the market. LCD projection will go first, followed by DLP then LCOS. Plasma will die in the near future as prices on 1080p sets will never come down as low as can be achieved with LCD, not to mention Plasma's high power consumption,tendency to burn-in with a stationary picture, and it's high heat generation. DLP must go to 3 chip soon to stay competitive with LCOS, and both 3 chip LCOS(SXRD) and DLP will survive the extinction of projection sets to live on in ceiling-mounted projectors. There just isn't any other technology that seems as practical in the short term, despite things like organic LEDs, etc.
Reply to this comment
From a Sales Associate
by Anisten September 27, 2007 6:05 AM PDT
I must say that I sell only 1 DLP/Rear Projection in about 75-100 units, the balance of course being Plasma or LCD.
The picture quality is MUCH better and it no longer suffers from burn in due to new technology implemented.
The weight of the plasmas have also decreased due to a thinner glass. The lower viewing angles on the LCD's are now at 178 degrees and the new Response times are bringing them to Plasma quality.
Larger is not always better as well and with the proper information the appropriate size is chosen as per the viewing distance.
The Plasma's power consumption on paper looks huge but when in actual use the power consumption is equaled to an LCD.
As to the panel Life, the life is 27 years and that only lowering the brightness to 50%.
Our lowest priced Plasma/LCD in the 1080P is as low as $1400 in the Canadian market with prices not at par with the U.S. market even though the price should reach par once the manufactures take note of our CA dollar reaching parity with the U.S. dollar.
In speaking with the Manufacturers representatives their profesional opinion is that they are fading away so fast that retailers are complaining they are taking up precious space on the floor.
So Yes I do believe they are on the out and very, very soon. Perhaps even before 2011.
You forgot about the weight
by federal September 27, 2007 3:40 AM PDT
The weight of a flat panel system increases at the square of the diagonally measured screen size.

The weight of a rear projection system is around 100lbs. increasing roughly linearly with screen width.

Lucky Goldstart's 71" Plasma TV weights 191 lbs.

Sony's 70" LCD weighs 204lbs.

Samsung's 71" DLP weighs 117Lbs.

The new 103" Panasonic Plasma TV weighs 485 lbs.

New rear projection sets have LED light sources, reducing power used and extending bulb life to as much as 20 years.
Reply to this comment
Fom a Sales Associate
by Anisten September 27, 2007 6:10 AM PDT
I must say that I sell only 1 DLP/Rear Projection in about 75-100 units, the balance of course being Plasma or LCD.
The picture quality is MUCH better and it no longer suffers from burn in due to new technology implemented.
The weight of the plasmas have also decreased due to a thinner glass. The lower viewing angles on the LCD's are now at 178 degrees and the new Response times are bringing them to Plasma quality.
Larger is not always better as well and with the proper information the appropriate size is chosen as per the viewing distance.
The Plasma's power consumption on paper looks huge but when in actual use the power consumption is equaled to an LCD.
As to the panel Life, the life is 27 years and that only lowering the brightness to 50%.
Our lowest priced Plasma/LCD in the 1080P is as low as $1400 in the Canadian market with prices not at par with the U.S. market even though the price should reach par once the manufactures take note of our CA dollar reaching parity with the U.S. dollar.
In speaking with the Manufacturers representatives their profesional opinion is that they are fading away so fast that retailers are complaining they are taking up precious space on the floor.
So Yes I do believe they are on the out and very, very soon. Perhaps even before 2011.
Reply to this comment
Cost of Audio
by es18 September 27, 2007 8:57 AM PDT
Even when flat-panels come down enough to equal the price of RPTVs, for
those on a budget who also want decent sound (and who don't already have a
surround-sound system), RPTVs have an advantage in that their deeper
cabinets can, and usually do, accommodate a subwoofer which gives a wider
range of sound compared to flat-panels which can't accommodate a
subwoofer.

While the built-in sound systems of RPTVs may not equal a full-blown
surround-sound system, they ain't so shabby either given the audio
processing technology these days which do a fairly decent job of simulating
surround-sound.
Reply to this comment
Still like my rear projection
by rsbruner October 6, 2007 7:12 PM PDT
I remember when I first had the chance/money to delve into HDTV. There were a lot of options available last Spring. When I first walked into CC to see the new TV's Sony KDS-50XBR1 caught my attention immediately. I was going to but a Samsung DLP, but the Sony took my breath away. We have had it for a year and a half, and after having some troubles and having the optical block replaced, it still continues to amaze me. It was the highest rated TV at the time on Cnet as well as several other sites.

Last month I won a contest at work and received a Panasonic 50" Plasma TV, the TH-50PX75U. Do not get me wrong, it is a great picture, but it does not give me same feeling when I watch as the Sony does. I don't know if it is the Sony's 1080p vs the Panasonic 720p, but it just isn't the same. I think the Sony LCoS picture is more realistic, standard def is still quite good as I enjoy watching a movie from the VCR on this TV. I don't have that same feeling with the plasma, and this is Consumer Reports #2 plasma tv.

Do I think RPTV is dead? I think people are trying to reclaim floor space in their homes, as many people with the 300 pound RPTV of old did. But if consumers were more concerned with picture over space savings the RPTV would still be in front.
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